We couldn't wait until June. In this special bonus episode of VADA Live, Director of Research at The Presidio Group Kevin Tynan joins host Dan Carrigan for an exclusive Convention Sneak Peek — laying out the data-driven framework he'll be unpacking on the main stage at the Marriott Virginia Beach Oceanfront this summer.
Kevin calls it "financial physics." It's the supply-and-demand reality that has governed the auto industry since, as he puts it, "we were trading stone wheels for saber-toothed tiger pelts." And right now, those physics are telling a very clear story: the era of cheap, high-volume vehicles is over — and the dealers who understand that shift are the ones who will be positioned to thrive.
The $25K Reality Check The average new vehicle transaction price is hovering around $50,000 — a number that gets a lot of headlines for being scary. Kevin's take? It's not going back down. The cost of raw materials, labor, logistics, and distribution only moves in one direction, and OEMs have made an orchestrated shift toward fewer units at higher margins. "Don't be making calls to the CEOs of your OE partners saying you could really sell a ton of $25,000 vehicles," Kevin told us. "They're not going to do it." The play for dealers is to align cost structures to lower volume and higher revenue per unit — not to wait for a return to the old normal.
The $194 Billion Defense The franchise dealer model is under a perennial political spotlight, but Kevin brings the receipts. From 2018 through 2025, consumers have saved $194 billion off MSRP through the franchise system — an average of roughly $1,500 per vehicle, and closer to $2,500 when you exclude the pandemic years. In a hypothetical direct-sales world, that savings disappears. Kevin's point: the flexibility of the franchise pricing model has historically benefited the buyer far more than a fixed-price OEM storefront would. It's not just good for dealers — the data says it's good for consumers too.
The "Snowflake" Market New vehicles are commodities — the same product, same price, from the same factory regardless of which lot you walk onto. Used vehicles are something different. As Kevin puts it, every one is "a snowflake or a fingerprint" — unique by mileage, condition, history, and the margin opportunity that comes with it. That uniqueness has historically made used the higher-margin side of the business. Kevin explores whether the pandemic-era flip — when new vehicle front-end gross actually surpassed used — is truly a temporary anomaly or a signal of a new normal, and what dealers should be preparing for either way.
What's Coming at VADA '26 Kevin is saving his full deep dives for Virginia Beach. On the main stage at the Marriott Oceanfront, he'll be unpacking the Chinese EV threat and what it actually means for the franchise base, the Fixed Ops pivot dealers need to be making right now, and the full data set behind the financial physics shaping 2026 and beyond.
This episode is the preview. The convention is the playbook.
About VADA Live VADA Live is the official video podcast of the Virginia Automobile Dealers Association, hosted by Dan Carrigan. Each episode features candid conversations with industry leaders, analysts, and experts on the trends, data, and strategies shaping automotive retail — from the showroom floor to the main stage at the VADA Annual Convention.
About Kevin Tynan Kevin Tynan is Director of Research at The Presidio Group, where he tracks the forces shaping automotive retail — from manufacturing economics and OEM strategy to dealership operations and macro market trends. A returning speaker at the VADA Annual Convention, Kevin is known for translating complex data into actionable insights for franchise dealers across the country.
About The Presidio Group The Presidio Group is an investment banking and advisory firm dedicated exclusively to the automotive industry. They provide M&A advisory, capital markets, and strategic consulting services to franchise dealers, dealer groups, and automotive companies — helping clients navigate the financial and operational realities of a rapidly evolving market. Learn more at thepresidiogroup.com.